{
  "release": {
    "schemaVersion": "ke.research.findings-evidence.v1",
    "id": "ke-research-findings-2026-08-01",
    "sequence": "Findings update 008",
    "date": "2026-08-01",
    "generatedAt": "2026-08-01T09:20:00-04:00",
    "informationCutoff": "2026-08-01T09:05:25-04:00",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-08-01",
    "citationUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-08-01/CITATION.cff",
    "title": "Timing crossed; the quality gate failed",
    "author": {
      "name": "William Keenan",
      "organization": "K&E Studios Research",
      "url": "https://kestudios.dev/william-keenan",
      "email": "william@kestudios.dev"
    },
    "reviewStatus": "source-verified local research update; not peer reviewed or independently validated"
  },
  "sourceSnapshots": [
    {
      "label": "Waggle and Kea committed snapshot",
      "commit": "03ea3a17c0b7cfbf256afeb97a5a74e2f246e21b",
      "capturedAt": "2026-08-01T09:05:25-04:00",
      "inspectionBasis": "bytes addressable from the frozen commit only",
      "artifactSha256": [
        "990f7d3454a2ca73b55afac5d91eeeccfd2b96960fb17c41e4d5f826575c3e8a",
        "821d94e650f9dff48816bda04713766ba2261eb2b9fd207e4eeea63a1c1aaa85",
        "377d3505fd8cddad97b8732c56ec7fd0b756038144bd663a7947099ec25ed183"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "HEATWAKE committed snapshot",
      "commit": "d2efb729fcca6afcf4d5ee5621b8fd318fae8df3",
      "capturedAt": "2026-08-01T09:05:25-04:00",
      "inspectionBasis": "bytes addressable from the frozen commit only; active and later source state excluded",
      "artifactSha256": [
        "265a38d58456269b39bb8af437894b29e19a6470b2b1ac1149beaeb613a7da02",
        "086c5810fbaab2a570f2a9bf5383f8f25aaea1280fd1347237781c2b173e3711",
        "faca2111c1fc19c3217cc32df27fd0b27c0da6d20da48c8d020cacedc831635a"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "acceptedPublicBaseline": {
    "latestFindingsDate": "2026-07-31",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-07-31",
    "evidenceSha256": "b088a2ecad7dfd981f402ba7733c75e7c0b04eacd19400290ae5c3b8f9f77c22",
    "latestDailyReviewDate": "2026-07-31",
    "comparisonPolicy": "Only claim, method, control, risk, limitation, decision, or dependency changes after the accepted public checkpoint were eligible. Source-writer activity alone was excluded."
  },
  "methodology": {
    "comparisonPolicy": "Inspect the accepted public checkpoint first, preregister changed claim IDs and falsifiers, then evaluate only frozen committed bytes available at the information cutoff.",
    "evidenceLevels": {
      "recorded": "present in an attributable frozen artifact",
      "observed": "measured during the accepted bounded source run",
      "verified": "reproduced by exact hash, schema, replay, or focused local checks",
      "independentValidation": false
    },
    "environment": "local macOS research workstation; one pinned local model and hardware-accelerated runtime for the Waggle and Kea heterogeneous-regime study",
    "waggleKeaControls": {
      "regimes": ["short", "middle", "long"],
      "heldoutRegimeCells": 12,
      "decisionsPerInformedArm": 96,
      "requiredExpectedDecisionsPerArm": 96,
      "samePinnedModelAndRuntime": true,
      "equalSourceInformation": true,
      "sourceSeparatedQualification": true,
      "selectorObservedOnlyFrozenPreExecutionFeatures": true,
      "acceptanceRule": "beat both static policies descriptively while retaining 96 of 96 expected decisions in both informed arms",
      "uncertaintyMethod": "deterministic block bootstrap with replacement",
      "uncertaintyResamples": 10000,
      "confirmatoryInference": false
    },
    "heatwakeControls": {
      "historicalScope": "one exact closed train-only event-time hour",
      "futureEventReleaseAllowed": false,
      "unsupportedRowsQuarantined": true,
      "receiveOrAvailabilityTimePresent": false,
      "initialSnapshotPresent": false,
      "completeSequenceContextPresent": false,
      "requiredFullUtcDaysForFreshCollection": 7,
      "completedDaysInFrozenLaunchRecord": 0,
      "collectionReceiptIsSourceAdmission": false,
      "adapterRole": "offline parser, schema, custody, ordering, gap, and revision smoke only"
    },
    "uncertainty": [
      "The selector study uses one local model, runtime, host, and deterministic numerical coordination task family.",
      "The selector timing interval is descriptive and cannot override the failed exact task-quality gate.",
      "No independent laboratory reproduction, statistical causal timing explanation, or direct energy metric is available.",
      "Native retained state was materially larger than the readable prefix, so lower logical wall time is not an overall-efficiency result.",
      "The historical replay lacks receive or availability time, an initial book snapshot, and complete sequence context.",
      "The fresh collection is represented only by a frozen launch record at zero completed days; active and later collector state was excluded.",
      "The bounded adapter sample remains quarantined and is not scientific or model evidence."
    ],
    "exclusions": [
      "All uncommitted, active, lock-held, growing, or later source-writer bytes after the cutoff",
      "All active raw events, segment payloads, growing receipts, and collector state",
      "All feature, label, calibration, fit, candidate, signal, and sealed final-test data",
      "Any post-result change to a target, metric, threshold, selector policy, or final-test boundary",
      "Any current-runtime inference from a frozen launch artifact"
    ],
    "publicSafety": "Public output was composed from accepted aggregate claims, frozen commit identifiers, non-reversible artifact hashes, bounded measurements, and explicit non-claims. Non-public implementation material, prompts, raw model state, raw market payloads, private topology, credentials, and reconstruction-enabling detail are omitted."
  },
  "programs": [
    {
      "id": "waggle-kea",
      "name": "Waggle + Kea",
      "verdict": "The heterogeneous-regime selector recorded a descriptive timing crossover, but both informed representations missed the exact task-quality gate, so adaptive utility was rejected and the selector line terminated.",
      "claimDeltas": [
        {
          "claim": "A heterogeneous-regime selector can beat both static representations without reducing task quality.",
          "priorStatus": "open after the earlier uniform-regime null result",
          "newEvidence": "selector matched the lower representation in 12 of 12 regime cells and measured 5.537839 percent below the better static policy; both informed arms reached only 88 of 96 expected decisions",
          "currentStatus": "rejected for this study; selector line terminated"
        },
        {
          "claim": "Matching native and readable outputs establish correct task behavior.",
          "priorStatus": "earlier bounded studies had both representation parity and exact expected decisions",
          "newEvidence": "96 of 96 paired outputs were byte-identical while both arms repeated the same eight deterministic errors; replacement and no-state controls each passed zero of 24 targets",
          "currentStatus": "contradicted as a general inference; parity is not correctness"
        }
      ],
      "study": {
        "classification": "preregistered heterogeneous-regime study",
        "hypothesisDecision": "retain null hypothesis and terminate adaptive selector line",
        "regimeCells": 12,
        "nativeExpectedDecisions": 88,
        "cachedExpectedDecisions": 88,
        "expectedDecisionDenominatorPerArm": 96,
        "byteIdenticalPairedDecisions": "96/96",
        "selectorMatchedLowerRepresentationCells": "12/12",
        "selectorCostMilliseconds": 484457.694815,
        "alwaysNativeCostMilliseconds": 512858.997998,
        "alwaysCachedCostMilliseconds": 524449.007291,
        "selectorDifferenceFromBestStaticPercent": -5.537839,
        "bootstrapIntervalPercent": [-5.806366, -5.354676],
        "qualityGatePassed": false,
        "informationControls": {
          "causalReplacementDecisions": 24,
          "causalReplacementTargetPasses": 0,
          "noStateDecisions": 24,
          "noStateTargetPasses": 0
        }
      },
      "resources": {
        "acceptedModelProcessLoads": 8,
        "acceptedForwardDecodeSteps": 17786,
        "processWallMilliseconds": 1025673,
        "maximumPeakRssBytes": 3047047168,
        "workspaceBytes": 1730071941,
        "nativeRetainedStateBytes": 705898303,
        "readablePrefixBytes": 5914,
        "directEnergyAvailable": false
      },
      "verification": {
        "focusedChecksPassed": 14,
        "formalReplayPassed": true,
        "implementationPinsVerified": 30,
        "artifactsVerified": 50,
        "sourcePinsVerified": 27,
        "priorCheckpointVerified": true,
        "qualificationRecomputed": true,
        "consumerRecomputed": true,
        "modelLoadsDuringReplay": 0,
        "forwardDecodeStepsDuringReplay": 0,
        "providerCallsDuringReplay": 0,
        "externalCallsDuringReplay": 0,
        "authorityEffectsDuringReplay": 0
      },
      "failedTrialAccounting": {
        "preservedPreliminaryTrials": 3,
        "failedOutputsRewritten": false,
        "incorrectDecisionsDroppedOrRelabeled": false
      },
      "notSupported": [
        "Adaptive selector utility or another rerun of this completed selector line",
        "General speed, token, Credit, provider-cost, memory, storage, network, energy, economic, or overall-efficiency savings",
        "A learned language, hidden-state semantic transfer, compression, unique capability, or higher output quality",
        "Cross-model, cross-runtime, cross-hardware, production, customer, deployment, or authority results",
        "Independent reproduction or confirmatory inference"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "heatwake",
      "name": "HEATWAKE",
      "verdict": "One closed historical hour passed bounded event-time replay mechanics with explicit quarantine. A fresh collection is recorded only at launch with zero of seven complete days; every source-admission, science, and execution gate remains closed.",
      "claimDeltas": [
        {
          "claim": "Historical data can exercise the existing book mechanics without future-event release.",
          "priorStatus": "no bounded historical event-time mechanics result had passed public review",
          "newEvidence": "3438286 rows parsed, 2555132 accepted, 883154 quarantined, four deterministic modes completed, zero future-event releases, 10 of 10 focused checks passed",
          "currentStatus": "verified for event-time mechanics only"
        },
        {
          "claim": "A fresh collection changes source-admission or scientific status.",
          "priorStatus": "fresh contract existed without committed launch evidence",
          "newEvidence": "frozen snapshot records launch at zero of seven complete days; active and later collector state excluded",
          "currentStatus": "Recorded launch only; source admission and all downstream gates closed"
        }
      ],
      "historicalReplay": {
        "scope": "one closed train-only event-time hour",
        "compressedSourceBytes": 115684557,
        "parsedRows": 3438286,
        "acceptedRows": 2555132,
        "acceptedPercent": 74.3141,
        "quarantinedRows": 883154,
        "quarantinedPercent": 25.6859,
        "deterministicReplayModes": 4,
        "futureEventReleases": 0,
        "maximumModeComputeSeconds": 271.375,
        "maximumModeRowsPerSecond": 12669.87,
        "maximumModeEventTimeToComputeRatio": 13.2654,
        "endToEndSeconds": 492.055,
        "endToEndEventTimeToComputeRatio": 7.3161,
        "peakRssBytes": 3400417280,
        "missingStatusJoins": 20772,
        "unconsumedEligibleStatuses": 14390,
        "timestampRegressions": 5,
        "receiveOrAvailabilityTimePresent": false,
        "initialSnapshotPresent": false,
        "completeSequenceContextPresent": false,
        "trainingInputEligible": false,
        "sourceAdmitted": false
      },
      "boundedAdapterSample": {
        "rows": 7293,
        "bytes": 123520,
        "focusedChecksPassed": 6,
        "missingTradeIdentifiers": 300,
        "physicalOrderReversalsPresent": true,
        "schemaDriftPresent": true,
        "upstreamRevisionMatch": false,
        "sourceAdmitted": false,
        "trainingAuthorized": false,
        "evaluationRuns": 0,
        "modelFits": 0,
        "finalTestOpens": 0
      },
      "freshCollection": {
        "evidenceLevel": "Recorded",
        "frozenArtifactRecordsLaunch": true,
        "completedFullUtcDaysAtLaunch": 0,
        "requiredFullUtcDays": 7,
        "activeOrLaterStateInspected": false,
        "currentHealthClaimed": false,
        "sourceAdmitted": false,
        "modelInputEligible": false
      },
      "effects": {
        "sourceAdmissions": 0,
        "modelFits": 0,
        "finalTestOpens": 0,
        "signals": 0,
        "orders": 0,
        "trades": 0,
        "capitalUsd": 0,
        "spendUsd": 0
      },
      "notSupported": [
        "A complete seven-day collection, terminal receipt, passing coverage audit, admitted raw source, or model-input eligibility",
        "Receive-time or availability-time latency, initial-book completeness, sequence completeness, queue position, or fill realism",
        "Feature or label construction, calibration, model fit, candidate selection, or sealed final-test results",
        "Forecasts, signals, market edge, profitability, execution results, trading readiness, or production reliability",
        "Scientific, training, evaluation, calibration, label, or final-test use of the bounded adapter sample"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "verification": [
    {
      "scope": "Waggle and Kea heterogeneous controls",
      "result": "PASS",
      "checks": 14,
      "modelCalls": 0,
      "externalCalls": 0
    },
    {
      "scope": "Waggle and Kea exact formal replay",
      "result": "PASS",
      "implementationPins": 30,
      "artifacts": 50,
      "sourcePins": 27,
      "priorCheckpointVerified": true,
      "qualificationRecomputed": true,
      "consumerRecomputed": true,
      "modelCalls": 0,
      "externalCalls": 0
    },
    {
      "scope": "HEATWAKE historical mechanics",
      "result": "PASS",
      "checks": 10,
      "futureEventReleases": 0,
      "sourceAdmissionChanged": false,
      "modelFits": 0,
      "finalTestOpens": 0,
      "orders": 0
    },
    {
      "scope": "HEATWAKE adapter controls",
      "result": "PASS",
      "checks": 6,
      "sourceAdmissionChanged": false,
      "modelFits": 0,
      "finalTestOpens": 0
    },
    {
      "scope": "HEATWAKE state-dependent prelaunch controls",
      "result": "REFUSED_AS_DESIGNED",
      "checksPassing": 2,
      "checksRefusing": 3,
      "reason": "frozen prelaunch assumptions do not apply to a post-launch environment; no active state was promoted"
    }
  ],
  "reviewerChecklist": {
    "claimToEvidenceTraceability": "PASS",
    "methodologicalFairnessAndMatchedComparison": "PASS",
    "evidenceLevelVerbs": "PASS",
    "negativeResultVisibility": "PASS",
    "contradictionHandling": "PASS",
    "reproducibilityAndChecksumIntegrity": "PASS",
    "significanceWithoutOverclaiming": "PASS",
    "ipSecurityPrivacyBoundary": "PASS",
    "responsiveReadabilityAndAccessibleSemantics": "PASS",
    "destinationConsistency": "PASS"
  },
  "nonClaims": [
    "No peer review or independent validation",
    "No adaptive selector utility and no general timing, efficiency, cost, energy, token, Credit, memory, storage, or network advantage",
    "No learned language, neuralese, hidden-state semantics, compression, unique capability, or cross-model transfer",
    "No complete HEATWAKE custody window, admitted source, model result, forecast, signal, edge, profit, trading readiness, or production operation",
    "No live-latency, queue, fill, training, evaluation, calibration, label, or final-test inference from historical or adapter data",
    "No DOI, archive deposit, external repository publication, or independent endorsement"
  ],
  "publicationEffectsAtEvidenceFreeze": {
    "paidRequests": 0,
    "providerCalls": 0,
    "sourceProgramWrites": 0,
    "modelRuns": 0,
    "finalTestOpens": 0,
    "emails": 0,
    "orders": 0,
    "trades": 0,
    "capitalUsd": 0,
    "spendUsd": 0,
    "credentialChanges": 0,
    "dnsChanges": 0,
    "pushes": 0,
    "merges": 0
  }
}