{
  "release": {
    "schemaVersion": "ke.research.findings-evidence.v1",
    "id": "ke-research-findings-2026-07-31",
    "sequence": "Findings update 007",
    "date": "2026-07-31",
    "generatedAt": "2026-07-31T09:20:03-04:00",
    "informationCutoff": "2026-07-31T09:08:25-04:00",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-07-31",
    "citationUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-07-31/CITATION.cff",
    "title": "The selector added no value; custody reset",
    "author": {
      "name": "William Keenan",
      "organization": "K&E Studios Research",
      "url": "https://kestudios.dev/william-keenan",
      "email": "william@kestudios.dev"
    },
    "reviewStatus": "source-verified local research update; not peer reviewed or independently validated"
  },
  "sourceSnapshots": [
    {
      "label": "Waggle and Kea committed snapshot",
      "commit": "211c3baacf37b56a165a6ded0520382faf0638f1",
      "capturedAt": "2026-07-31T09:08:25-04:00",
      "inspectionBasis": "bytes addressable from the frozen commit only",
      "artifactSha256": [
        "8434de6c603f5a17cff6a2c799109bd991f5bac55481f070f16a2cbc4d4dd008",
        "a85c294de65f1c79f40a8b3891cebc7dc5ee99b51523462ee8629b3e095e4a41",
        "ad5ad489d6ec993139a08c708e03e1f8a1e0a677c4eadcf249f0846a9378ba3d"
      ]
    },
    {
      "label": "HEATWAKE committed snapshot",
      "commit": "d723164a07e10c888780583b5463846d7f1b8cc2",
      "capturedAt": "2026-07-31T09:08:25-04:00",
      "inspectionBasis": "bytes addressable from the frozen commit only; active and later source state excluded",
      "artifactSha256": [
        "592b6f5991d7d45284f8a6f117d633f3235afb172fa2a7e0da64790c3eeccd44",
        "2f84f0166c1a157c9a60008b6134d934a05a863001ae5844db64c02658ef0bc1",
        "1ae573af08937865e2c11c7b4520695678333a889b6fb53739d44c18f8512855",
        "5e956170b987d8863ec6d812a8844336c0dc58b1abe3c5f2e403fa6256d0262d"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "acceptedPublicBaseline": {
    "latestFindingsDate": "2026-07-28",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-07-28",
    "evidenceSha256": "d39b2c6caeb8a4e099a76e55a51f8340be491748e372fb53e9b357f727821b2a",
    "latestDailyReviewDate": "2026-07-30",
    "comparisonPolicy": "Only claim, method, control, risk, limitation, decision, or dependency changes after the accepted public checkpoint were eligible. Source-writer activity alone was excluded."
  },
  "methodology": {
    "comparisonPolicy": "Inspect the accepted public checkpoint first, preregister changed claim IDs and falsifiers, then evaluate only frozen committed bytes available at the information cutoff.",
    "evidenceLevels": {
      "recorded": "present in an attributable frozen artifact",
      "observed": "measured during the accepted bounded source run",
      "verified": "reproduced by exact hash, schema, replay, or focused local checks",
      "independentValidation": false
    },
    "environment": "local macOS research workstation; one pinned local model and hardware-accelerated runtime for the Waggle and Kea feasibility pilot",
    "waggleKeaControls": {
      "heldoutBlocks": 4,
      "decisionsPerArmPerBlock": 32,
      "horizons": [1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32],
      "blockHorizons": 24,
      "samePinnedModelAndRuntime": true,
      "equalSourceInformation": true,
      "sourceSeparatedQualification": true,
      "selectorObservedOnlyFrozenPreExecutionFeatures": true,
      "acceptanceRule": "beat both static policies in aggregate and in at least three of four blocks while retaining exact quality and at most five percent oracle regret",
      "uncertaintyMethod": "deterministic block bootstrap with replacement",
      "uncertaintyResamples": 10000,
      "confirmatoryInference": false
    },
    "heatwakeControls": {
      "requiredFullUtcDays": 7,
      "automaticRestartAllowed": false,
      "unreceiptedFragmentsEligible": false,
      "rowsCopiedToSuccessor": 0,
      "coverageThresholdsChanged": false,
      "scienceThresholdsChanged": false,
      "collectionReceiptIsSourceAdmission": false,
      "publicSampleRole": "offline parser, event-time, availability-time, gap, and duplicate smoke only"
    },
    "uncertainty": [
      "The selector study uses one local model, runtime, host, and deterministic numerical coordination workload.",
      "Uniform native dominance makes the selector-uplift bootstrap interval degenerate at zero; it is descriptive and not confirmatory.",
      "No independent laboratory replication, statistical causal timing explanation, or direct energy metric is available.",
      "Native retained state was materially larger than the readable prefix, so lower logical wall time is not an overall-efficiency result.",
      "The interrupted collection has no terminal receipt and cannot complete its fixed window.",
      "The bounded public sample is intentionally small, non-representative, and not scientific or model evidence.",
      "Publisher metadata and a declared license do not independently establish custody, causal fitness, or downstream-use rights."
    ],
    "exclusions": [
      "All uncommitted, active, lock-held, or later source-writer bytes after the cutoff",
      "All active raw events, segment payloads, growing receipts, and collector state",
      "All feature, label, calibration, fit, candidate, signal, and sealed final-test data",
      "All derived public-dataset features, resolved outcomes, identity-bearing data, and full-repository downloads",
      "Any post-result change to a target, metric, threshold, selector policy, or final-test boundary"
    ],
    "publicSafety": "Public output was composed from accepted aggregate claims, frozen commit identifiers, non-reversible artifact hashes, bounded measurements, and explicit non-claims. Non-public implementation material, prompts, raw model state, raw market payloads, private topology, credentials, and reconstruction-enabling detail are omitted."
  },
  "programs": [
    {
      "id": "waggle-kea",
      "name": "Waggle + Kea",
      "verdict": "Exact task-sufficient handoff behavior reproduced, but the selector matched always-native and added no adaptive utility on this feasibility pilot.",
      "claimDeltas": [
        {
          "claim": "A task-sufficient selector can outperform always using one representation.",
          "priorStatus": "untested",
          "newEvidence": "native lower at all 24 block-horizons; selector chose native throughout; zero uplift over best static; zero of four blocks beat both static policies",
          "currentStatus": "rejected for this feasibility pilot"
        },
        {
          "claim": "Task-sufficient native and readable representations preserve exact downstream decisions.",
          "priorStatus": "supported on earlier bounded paired fixtures",
          "newEvidence": "128 of 128 exact paired decisions; qualified continuation; zero of 32 replacement and zero of 32 no-state controls passed the target",
          "currentStatus": "supported on this frozen workload, model, runtime, and host"
        }
      ],
      "pilot": {
        "classification": "feasibility pilot",
        "hypothesisDecision": "retain null hypothesis",
        "heldoutBlocks": 4,
        "exactNativeDecisions": 128,
        "exactReadableDecisions": 128,
        "exactPairedDecisions": "128/128",
        "blockHorizons": 24,
        "nativeSelectedHorizons": "24/24",
        "blocksBelowBothStatic": "0/4",
        "selectorCostMilliseconds": 772990.495048,
        "alwaysNativeCostMilliseconds": 772990.495048,
        "alwaysReadableCostMilliseconds": 866712.382173,
        "nativeDifferenceFromReadablePercent": -10.813494,
        "selectorUpliftOverBestStaticPercent": 0,
        "oracleRegretFraction": 0,
        "informationControls": {
          "causalReplacementDecisions": 32,
          "causalReplacementTargetPasses": 0,
          "noStateDecisions": 32,
          "noStateTargetPasses": 0
        }
      },
      "resources": {
        "acceptedModelProcessLoads": 7,
        "acceptedForwardDecodeSteps": 16867,
        "processWallMilliseconds": 1172348.521667,
        "maximumPeakRssBytes": 2428370944,
        "nativeRetainedStateBytes": 459066649,
        "readablePrefixBytes": 6634,
        "directEnergyAvailable": false
      },
      "verification": {
        "focusedChecksPassed": 13,
        "implementationPinsVerified": 70,
        "artifactPinsVerified": 29,
        "qualificationRecomputed": true,
        "consumerRecomputed": true,
        "sourceHashesVerified": true,
        "modelLoadsDuringReplay": 0,
        "forwardDecodeStepsDuringReplay": 0,
        "providerCallsDuringReplay": 0,
        "externalCallsDuringReplay": 0,
        "authorityEffectsDuringReplay": 0
      },
      "failedTrialAccounting": {
        "preservedFailedFrozenTrials": 6,
        "acceptedTrial": 7,
        "failedOutputsRewritten": false,
        "newSourcesRequiredAfterRecoveryGate": true
      },
      "notSupported": [
        "Adaptive selector value outside this feasibility pilot",
        "General speed, token, Credit, provider-cost, memory, storage, network, energy, economic, or overall-efficiency savings",
        "A learned language, hidden-state semantic transfer, minimum sufficient language, unique capability, or higher output quality",
        "Cross-model, cross-runtime, cross-hardware, production, customer, deployment, or authority results",
        "Independent replication or confirmatory inference"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "heatwake",
      "name": "HEATWAKE",
      "verdict": "A host reboot ended the prior fixed collection after three of seven full UTC days. Closed receipts remain retained, the unreceipted fragment is excluded, a fresh window is required, and every source-admission, science, and execution gate remains closed.",
      "claimDeltas": [
        {
          "claim": "The prior seven-day raw collection window can reach its fixed completion gate.",
          "priorStatus": "two of seven full UTC days at the previous public cutoff; incomplete",
          "newEvidence": "host reboot after three full UTC days; 50 closed receipts retained; final unreceipted fragment excluded; fixed window impossible to complete",
          "currentStatus": "rejected for that window; fresh preregistered window required"
        },
        {
          "claim": "A pinned public sample can support bounded adapter development without becoming research evidence.",
          "priorStatus": "no alternate public sample had passed bounded intake",
          "newEvidence": "123520 bytes across three raw files; seven focused intake checks passed; no derived features, labels, resolved outcomes, or identity-bearing tables",
          "currentStatus": "accepted for offline adapter smoke only; not source admitted"
        }
      ],
      "interruptedCollection": {
        "completedFullUtcDays": 3,
        "requiredFullUtcDays": 7,
        "closedReceipts": 50,
        "providerFrames": 3808225,
        "transportGaps": 46,
        "transportReconnects": 46,
        "protocolRefusals": 0,
        "terminalReceiptPresent": false,
        "unreceiptedFragmentExcluded": true,
        "sourceSequenceCompletenessClaimed": false,
        "sourceAdmitted": false,
        "modelInputEligible": false
      },
      "successorContract": {
        "frozenBeforeFirstProviderByte": true,
        "committedLaunchReceiptPresentAtCutoff": false,
        "requiredFullUtcDays": 7,
        "coverageThresholdsChanged": false,
        "scienceThresholdsChanged": false,
        "rowsCopiedFromInterruptedSession": 0,
        "automaticRestartAllowed": false,
        "separateCoverageAuditRequired": true,
        "separateSourceAdmissionRequired": true
      },
      "boundedPublicSample": {
        "files": 3,
        "totalBytes": 123520,
        "focusedIntakeChecksPassed": 7,
        "derivedFeatureFiles": 0,
        "labelFiles": 0,
        "resolvedOutcomeFiles": 0,
        "identityBearingFiles": 0,
        "sourceAdmitted": false,
        "trainingAuthorized": false,
        "evaluationRuns": 0,
        "modelFits": 0,
        "finalTestOpens": 0,
        "allowedUses": [
          "offline parser and schema smoke",
          "event-time and availability-time mapping audit",
          "gap and duplicate detector development"
        ]
      },
      "effects": {
        "sourceAdmissions": 0,
        "modelFits": 0,
        "finalTestOpens": 0,
        "signals": 0,
        "orders": 0,
        "trades": 0,
        "capitalUsd": 0,
        "spendUsd": 0
      },
      "notSupported": [
        "A complete seven-day collection, terminal receipt, passing coverage audit, admitted raw source, or model-input eligibility",
        "Feature or label construction, calibration, model fit, candidate selection, or sealed final-test results",
        "Forecasts, signals, market edge, profitability, execution results, trading readiness, or production reliability",
        "Scientific, training, evaluation, calibration, label, or final-test use of the bounded public sample"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "verification": [
    {
      "scope": "Waggle and Kea focused controls",
      "result": "PASS",
      "checks": 13,
      "modelCalls": 0,
      "externalCalls": 0
    },
    {
      "scope": "Waggle and Kea exact frozen-tree formal replay",
      "result": "PASS",
      "implementationPins": 70,
      "artifactPins": 29,
      "qualificationRecomputed": true,
      "consumerRecomputed": true,
      "modelCalls": 0,
      "externalCalls": 0
    },
    {
      "scope": "HEATWAKE public-sample and interruption controls",
      "result": "PASS",
      "combinedTests": 13,
      "publicSampleFocusedChecks": 7,
      "sourceAdmissionChanged": false,
      "modelFits": 0,
      "finalTestOpens": 0,
      "orders": 0
    }
  ],
  "reviewerChecklist": {
    "claimToEvidenceTraceability": "PASS",
    "methodologicalFairnessAndMatchedComparison": "PASS",
    "evidenceLevelVerbs": "PASS",
    "negativeResultVisibility": "PASS",
    "contradictionHandling": "PASS",
    "reproducibilityAndChecksumIntegrity": "PASS",
    "significanceWithoutOverclaiming": "PASS",
    "ipSecurityPrivacyBoundary": "PASS",
    "responsiveReadabilityAndAccessibleSemantics": "PASS",
    "destinationConsistency": "PASS"
  },
  "nonClaims": [
    "No peer review or independent validation",
    "No general timing, efficiency, cost, energy, token, Credit, memory, storage, or network advantage",
    "No learned language, neuralese, hidden-state semantics, compression, unique capability, or cross-model transfer",
    "No complete HEATWAKE custody window, admitted source, model result, forecast, signal, edge, profit, trading readiness, or production operation",
    "No training, evaluation, calibration, label, or final-test use of the bounded public sample",
    "No DOI, archive deposit, external repository publication, or independent endorsement"
  ],
  "publicationEffectsAtEvidenceFreeze": {
    "paidRequests": 0,
    "providerCalls": 0,
    "sourceProgramWrites": 0,
    "modelRuns": 0,
    "finalTestOpens": 0,
    "emails": 0,
    "orders": 0,
    "trades": 0,
    "capitalUsd": 0,
    "spendUsd": 0,
    "credentialChanges": 0,
    "dnsChanges": 0,
    "pushes": 0,
    "merges": 0
  }
}