{ "schemaVersion": "ke.research-findings-evidence.v1", "release": { "id": "ke-research-findings-2026-07-17", "title": "Policy worked; learned-state gates did not", "date": "2026-07-17", "generatedAt": "2026-07-17T09:11:23-04:00", "canonicalUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-07-17", "author": { "name": "William Keenan", "organization": "K&E Studios Research", "url": "https://kestudios.dev/william-keenan", "email": "william@kestudios.dev" }, "reviewStatus": "source-verified local research update; not peer reviewed" }, "methodology": { "claimRule": "A claim is supported only inside the frozen fixture, protocol, runtime, control, and authority envelope. Negative admissions remain results. Raw capture is not model-data admission.", "sources": [ "Committed aggregate reports and frozen protocols", "Content and record SHA-256 digests", "Exact clean source commit labels", "Zero-provider-call replay of changed Waggle and Kea evidence", "Deep local verification of the complete HEATWAKE canary receipt and event hash chain" ], "publicSourceBoundary": "The research source repositories and underlying evidence artifacts were non-public at release time. Commit identifiers are provenance labels only and are not linked to private repositories.", "privateEvidenceBoundary": "Raw provider responses, market payloads, local custody details, model state, prompts, and reconstruction-enabling artifacts are withheld. Published hashes do not link to downloadable confidential artifacts.", "externalReview": false }, "sourceSnapshots": [ { "program": "Waggle + Kea", "commit": "96f67d23efe92d8c0987b0e43f519abffb861092", "verificationState": "clean committed snapshot", "publicProgramUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/waggle" }, { "program": "HEATWAKE", "commit": "24af77f7a86064afa6b9c15c6a47e3322a756735", "verificationState": "clean committed snapshot with private retained raw-capture evidence", "publicProgramUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/heatwake" } ], "programs": [ { "id": "waggle-kea", "name": "Waggle + Kea", "verdict": "Bounded audited-policy capability passed. Cache utility remained unsupported or discovery-only. Two learned/native admissions stopped before model load.", "experiments": [ { "id": "C7b", "question": "Did cache affinity create a unique bounded program capability under the frozen public-API-equivalent budget?", "result": { "cacheAffinityExact": "8/8", "coldControlExact": "8/8", "cacheAffinityArtifactPassed": true, "coldControlArtifactPassed": true, "cacheAffinityReportedCacheReadTokens": 31744, "coldControlReportedCacheReadTokens": 384, "actualProviderCostReported": false, "formalProviderModelCalls": 17, "modelToolCalls": 0, "authorityEffects": 0, "reportSha256": "d8241741d4c954e3237ac86f02754a38ad61588cb513d0eb7d84e5e26b901292" }, "negativeClaim": "The final matched result did not establish unique cache-affine program utility, purchased-credit savings, or overall efficiency." }, { "id": "C7c", "question": "Should the cached-context deadline program advance from discovery to a held-out formal run?", "result": { "discoveryCacheAffinityExact": "2/2", "discoveryColdControlExact": "2/2", "cacheAffinityMeaningfulCacheHits": "2/2", "chargedEightTaskAffinityProjectionMs": 30456.385252, "chargedEightTaskControlProjectionMs": 28177.880628, "formalRunLaunched": false, "discoveryProviderModelCalls": 5, "modelToolCalls": 0, "authorityEffects": 0, "reportSha256": "719b7ec247cafc42d137e14e247f1f4b5ba33fb517a11026ca5678fd100bad49" }, "negativeClaim": "After charging the required prime, the affinity projection was slower, so the formal run was correctly withheld." }, { "id": "C7d", "question": "Can Kea-qualified declarative policy artifacts drive a generic source-blind local consumer on withheld records?", "result": { "qualifiedPrograms": "3/3", "supportRecordsExact": "6/6", "releaseRecordsExact": "5/5", "fulfillmentRecordsExact": "6/6", "totalWithheldRecordsExact": "17/17", "noChannelFailuresClosed": "4/4", "ambiguousPoliciesAbstained": "1/1", "plainJsonParity": true, "uniqueWaggleEncodingAdvantage": false, "checkpointProviderModelCallsIncludingRecovery": 6, "modelToolCalls": 0, "authorityEffects": 0, "reportSha256": "8d2bfff7d486dd5d8809117a93039dd5f85accc4f2c1bfb6898828bace8df657" }, "supportedClaim": "In the frozen fixture, audited declarative artifacts enabled exact source-blind local policy routing with explicit abstention and no-channel refusal.", "notSupported": [ "A learned language or unique encoding advantage", "Arbitrary code execution", "General reasoning or quality", "Token, credit, cost, storage, network, or overall-efficiency savings", "Production policy enforcement or authority" ] }, { "id": "C7e", "question": "Can the founder compile, inspect, correct, simulate, and replay one bounded policy locally without granting authority?", "result": { "frozenFormalChecks": "25/25", "originalOutputsExact": "6/6", "correctedOutputsExact": "6/6", "ambiguousPolicyAbstained": true, "noChannelFailedClosed": true, "unknownFieldFailedClosed": true, "providerModelCalls": 2, "modelToolCalls": 0, "authorityEffects": 0, "reportSha256": "5f4cfc0433b27a000dc2344c3c4447d2b1ec0c7c1c8119b51035a7edd9ea4d20" }, "supportedClaim": "The first frozen formal run and founder product replay passed inside the bounded local zero-authority fixture.", "limitation": "A later invocation of the whole scorer exposed a byte-replay reentry defect. That attempt made zero provider calls and did not rewrite the sealed first-run report, but a fully reentrant whole-scorer claim remains false." }, { "id": "C7NL1", "question": "Did the first learned/native bottleneck lane pass exact-model admission?", "result": { "gatePassed": false, "stopPoint": "sandbox resource preflight before model load", "baseModelLoadAttempts": 0, "baseModelLoads": 0, "baseModelForwards": 0, "trainingRuns": 0, "hiddenReveals": 0, "networkCalls": 0, "authorityEffects": 0, "finalResultSha256": "0b15297235b8dc331905e1a028c9dee5c9290a20d7690947572527507b9fabea" }, "negativeClaim": "Admission failed before model load; learned/native utility and model quality were not tested." }, { "id": "C7NL2", "question": "Did the process-enumeration-free recovery pass scored admission?", "result": { "gatePassed": false, "unscoredDiscoveryPassed": true, "stopPoint": "frozen launcher protocol-hash check before scored resource measurement", "baseModelLoadAttempts": 0, "baseModelLoads": 0, "baseModelForwards": 0, "trainingRuns": 0, "hiddenReveals": 0, "networkCalls": 0, "authorityEffects": 0, "finalResultSha256": "c67aa34a5cf8d2946d2004ebb9c1c8eb8125c6eb309ae328fe6e186a2b4c8f2b" }, "negativeClaim": "The recovery did not establish scored admission or exact-model behavior; no model-quality inference is valid." } ], "programNonClaims": [ "No learned Waggle or universal neuralese", "No learned/native bottleneck utility or model-quality result", "No unique encoding, cache-reliability, credit-savings, or overall-efficiency claim", "No arbitrary code execution, production enforcement, deployment, or authority", "No customer, revenue, or commercial validation claim" ] }, { "id": "heatwake", "name": "HEATWAKE", "verdict": "One bounded raw-only public market-data canary passed complete local receipt verification. No complete market, historical execution bundle, model-data admission, forecast, edge, profitability, or trading claim is supported.", "experiments": [ { "id": "public-market-data-canary-v1", "result": { "contractFrozenBeforeRetainedProviderMarketByte": true, "contractRecordHash": "36d932b66bd1cd58de90e71c9c182809910f923e0c8ed43b5cb8a4e76cce1cd9", "canarySeconds": 45, "hashChainedRecords": 2337, "streamMessages": 2327, "outcomeBooksPresent": "2/2", "heartbeatPingPongPairs": 4, "gaps": 0, "reconnects": 0, "measuredNetworkBytes": 1447230, "retainedEventBytes": 2749604, "eventSha256": "63a55dafe5df3ac1d95a637c8cb74b323a83c6f84904510dc97c31cac6e5f29f", "terminalRecordHash": "0a2992e77b21300484b633afdd4afbfe52b843d63fcaf4d98ceb35a48d576e01", "receiptRecordHash": "04b4695be1c20984c2e59527b950b69ca82586fea6b21fdc61fb90169d0300a2", "receiptFileSha256": "d137eaadad8ce4351cded566764f447bb997feeb49483b728cca5e353c937018" }, "effects": { "publicDiscoveryRequests": 1, "publicBookRequests": 2, "unauthenticatedMarketDataConnections": 1, "credentials": 0, "authenticatedRequests": 0, "orders": 0, "trades": 0, "capitalUsd": 0, "spendUsd": 0, "modelFeatureWrites": 0, "labelWrites": 0, "calibrationReads": 0, "finalTestOpens": 0 }, "supportedClaim": "The frozen collector and custody verifier retained and replayed one short public raw-only market-data window.", "notSupported": [ "A complete market capture", "Historical L2 reconstruction or a historical execution bundle", "Model feature, label, calibration, or candidate admission", "Forecast quality, market edge, profitability, or trading readiness", "Production provider access, order authority, or operational reliability" ] }, { "id": "safe-local-audit-v83", "result": { "runtimeSources": 338, "highSeverityFindings": 0, "recordHash": "52693c08cc744638f25ce34aa9e08400b8d87de9356338e94305cc73f335dde7", "licenseCompatible": false, "productionSecure": false, "providerReady": false, "releaseCompliant": false, "tradingReady": false, "trainingReady": false }, "releaseBlockers": [ "Repository license not declared", "Third-party dependency-license compatibility not reviewed", "Empirical source admission and normalization not granted", "Release authority not granted" ] }, { "id": "ongoing-prefinal-state", "result": { "terminalEmpiricalVerdictPublished": false, "finalTestState": "SEALED_UNOPENED", "policyAction": "ABSTAIN", "duplicateWriterCreatedByHeartbeat": false }, "supportedClaim": "No later terminal empirical claim was available at heartbeat inspection time." } ], "programNonClaims": [ "No admitted model corpus or final-test result", "No complete market capture or historical L2 reconstruction", "No validated forecast, market edge, profitability, or trading readiness", "No credentials, authentication, order, trade, capital, spend, or production deployment", "No public redistribution of the private raw receipt or event payload" ] } ], "verification": { "performedAt": "2026-07-17T09:11:23-04:00", "environment": "local macOS research workstation", "runs": [ { "program": "Waggle + Kea", "command": "stored C7b zero-call replay", "result": "PASS", "observed": "8/8 versus 8/8; both artifacts passed; replay provider calls 0" }, { "program": "Waggle + Kea", "command": "stored C7c zero-call replay", "result": "PASS_NEGATIVE_ADMISSION", "observed": "2/2 versus 2/2 discovery; charged affinity projection slower; formal run absent; replay provider calls 0" }, { "program": "Waggle + Kea", "command": "stored C7d zero-call replay", "result": "PASS", "observed": "17/17 withheld records exact; no-channel 4/4 fail-closed; ambiguity 1/1 abstained; replay provider calls 0" }, { "program": "Waggle + Kea", "command": "stored C7e founder product replay", "result": "PASS_WITH_DISCLOSED_SCORER_LIMITATION", "observed": "6/6 latest simulation exact; original and corrected lineage verified; replay provider calls 0; authority false" }, { "program": "Waggle + Kea", "command": "five focused C7 suites, two learned-state suites, public-fixture audit, typecheck, and build", "result": "PASS", "observed": "All focused tests passed; public-fixture audit covered 1,000 cases; TypeScript and production build passed" }, { "program": "HEATWAKE", "command": "focused raw-only capture suite", "result": "PASS", "observed": "9/9 capture, schema, authority, refusal, custody, and tamper tests passed" }, { "program": "HEATWAKE", "command": "cold capture preflight", "result": "PASS_ZERO_REQUESTS", "observed": "Frozen contract and encrypted custody volume verified; network requests 0" }, { "program": "HEATWAKE", "command": "deep retained receipt verification", "result": "PASS", "observed": "All 2,337 ordinals, payload hashes, hash links, counts, terminal hash, and whole-file hash reproduced" } ], "verificationEffects": { "providerCalls": 0, "localModelLoads": 0, "trainingRuns": 0, "paidRequests": 0, "emailSends": 0, "newMarketCaptureRequests": 0, "newMarketBytesCaptured": 0, "heatwakeFinalTestOpens": 0, "orders": 0, "trades": 0, "capitalUsd": 0, "authorityGrants": 0, "researchHarnessDeployments": 0 } }, "releaseNonClaims": [ "Not peer reviewed or independently validated", "No universal agent language or learned private protocol", "No learned/native bottleneck utility or model-quality result", "No provider-cache savings, unique encoding, or overall-efficiency claim", "No complete HEATWAKE market capture, admitted model corpus, or final-test result", "No forecast, market edge, profitability, trading, or production claim", "No customer adoption, revenue, or commercial validation claim" ] }