{
  "schemaVersion": "ke.research-findings-evidence.v1",
  "release": {
    "id": "ke-research-findings-2026-07-16",
    "title": "One artifact crossed the deadline",
    "date": "2026-07-16",
    "generatedAt": "2026-07-16T09:11:04-04:00",
    "canonicalUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/updates/2026-07-16",
    "author": {
      "name": "William Keenan",
      "organization": "K&E Studios Research",
      "url": "https://kestudios.dev/william-keenan",
      "email": "william@kestudios.dev"
    },
    "reviewStatus": "source-verified local research update; not peer reviewed"
  },
  "methodology": {
    "claimRule": "A claim is supported only inside the tested fixture, model, runtime, host, control, and time-budget envelope. Negative results remain results. Untested extensions are listed as not demonstrated.",
    "sources": [
      "Committed aggregate reports and protocols",
      "Content and record SHA-256 digests",
      "Exact source commit labels",
      "No-call replay verification of changed Waggle and Kea gates",
      "Focused local HEATWAKE product and audit verification"
    ],
    "publicSourceBoundary": "The research source repositories and underlying evidence artifacts were non-public at release time. Commit identifiers are provenance labels only and are not linked to private repositories.",
    "privateEvidenceBoundary": "The HEATWAKE audit requires two locally retained non-public evidence inputs. Their contents, locations, and reconstruction-enabling details are withheld. The audit is not represented as Git-only reproduction.",
    "externalReview": false
  },
  "sourceSnapshots": [
    {
      "program": "Waggle + Kea",
      "commit": "01f6355661694d2a8083c1ff0b4bbe803f881416",
      "verificationState": "clean committed snapshot",
      "publicProgramUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/waggle"
    },
    {
      "program": "HEATWAKE",
      "commit": "63371b79598ee8907503905e575014f526aab6a4",
      "verificationState": "clean tracked snapshot with two non-public locally retained evidence inputs",
      "publicProgramUrl": "https://kestudios.dev/research/heatwake"
    }
  ],
  "programs": [
    {
      "id": "waggle-kea",
      "name": "Waggle + Kea",
      "verdict": "One preregistered local resident-state fixture crossed its completed-artifact deadline bar. Provider fan-out and fresh-process artifact utility remained negative. No learned language, general quality, or overall-efficiency claim is supported.",
      "experiments": [
        {
          "id": "C6w",
          "question": "Can a fresh process use a provider-managed session reference to preserve bounded multi-fact decisions?",
          "environment": {
            "cliVersion": "0.2.101",
            "model": "grok-4.5",
            "apiBackend": "Responses",
            "reasoningEffort": "low",
            "maxTurns": 2,
            "toolsEnabled": false
          },
          "result": {
            "providerSessionExact": "2/2",
            "fullTextExact": "2/2",
            "noContextAbstentions": "2/2",
            "preflightAbstentions": "2/2",
            "formalProviderProcesses": 8,
            "formalProviderModelCalls": 8,
            "plannerPlusSessionReportedInputTokens": 36336,
            "fullTextReportedInputTokens": 17957,
            "plannerPlusSessionToFullTextInputRatioApprox": 2.02,
            "costReportedForEveryCall": false,
            "reportSha256": "4b80b435a0bf14d1fbdc0a74c3b0daaf4d02df3b0c29aac7cd596ce3317a24e1"
          },
          "supportedClaim": "The tested provider-managed session reference preserved two bounded decisions across fresh processes with full-text parity.",
          "notSupported": [
            "Native model-state transfer",
            "Independent semantic decoding",
            "A capability unavailable to full text",
            "Token, cost, or overall-efficiency advantage",
            "Production provider access"
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "C6x",
          "question": "Does provider-session fan-out produce a useful public-API-equivalent cost advantage?",
          "environment": {
            "cliVersion": "0.2.101",
            "model": "grok-4.5",
            "apiBackend": "Responses",
            "reasoningEffort": "low",
            "maxTurns": 1,
            "pricingSnapshotRetrievedAt": "2026-07-16T08:20:00Z",
            "pricingUsdPerMillionTokens": {
              "input": 2,
              "cachedInput": 0.5,
              "output": 6
            },
            "actualSubscriptionBilling": false
          },
          "result": {
            "forkedExact": "8/8",
            "fullTextExact": "8/8",
            "byteSemanticParity": "8/8",
            "independentForks": "8/8",
            "meaningfulRetainedContextCacheHits": "0/8",
            "preflightAbstentions": "2/2",
            "breakEvenThroughTaskEight": false,
            "taskEightForkPublicApiEquivalentProxyUsd": 0.226966,
            "taskEightFullTextPublicApiEquivalentProxyUsd": 0.197962,
            "forkProxyPercentWorse": 14.6513,
            "formalSuccessfulProviderProcesses": 17,
            "formalInvocationAttempts": 18,
            "reportSha256": "777965b7b7943711dbf57b03a75ccce759cfe20c378155aab3be460e1fde3009"
          },
          "supportedClaim": "Independent provider-session forks preserved the tested decisions.",
          "negativeClaim": "The frozen fan-out route did not establish cost-proxy or cache-affinity utility.",
          "proxyLimitation": "The dollar curve uses a frozen public API price schedule; it is not the user's actual subscription bill or purchased-credit result."
        },
        {
          "id": "C6y",
          "question": "Can separate fresh native-state processes complete an eight-module artifact inside 45 seconds when repeated full text cannot?",
          "environment": {
            "modelRepository": "Qwen/Qwen3-14B-GGUF",
            "modelRevision": "53022754e2d511d97616f46d5bef3f7802d75557",
            "modelArtifactBytes": 12121937248,
            "modelArtifactSha256": "ec1fda3cb70294f959579f5d7ca86af4d40db67baafc75ddd1d907a0f2a7f704",
            "localFilesOnly": true,
            "contextLength": 4096,
            "threads": 8,
            "maxGeneratedTokensPerTask": 48,
            "executionOrder": [
              "native-state",
              "full-text"
            ],
            "operatingSystemCacheControlled": false
          },
          "result": {
            "deadlineMs": 45000,
            "nativeExactDecisions": "6/8",
            "fullTextExactDecisions": "4/8",
            "nativeArtifactPassed": false,
            "fullTextArtifactPassed": false,
            "nativeStateBytes": 370422717,
            "retainedStateBytesAfterStudy": 0,
            "reportSha256": "0b5ec542f20018fa0ef4f840f5ebfbe167e1433ebe150fd387fcd4cd613163e2"
          },
          "negativeClaim": "Neither arm completed the preregistered artifact, so unique deadline capability was not demonstrated."
        },
        {
          "id": "C6z",
          "question": "Can one resident native-state Executor complete a bounded executable fixture inside the same deadline that a resident full-text control misses?",
          "environment": {
            "modelRepository": "Qwen/Qwen3-14B-GGUF",
            "modelRevision": "53022754e2d511d97616f46d5bef3f7802d75557",
            "modelArtifactBytes": 12121937248,
            "modelArtifactSha256": "ec1fda3cb70294f959579f5d7ca86af4d40db67baafc75ddd1d907a0f2a7f704",
            "localFilesOnly": true,
            "contextLength": 4096,
            "threads": 8,
            "maxGeneratedTokensPerTask": 48,
            "freshLogicalContextPerTask": true,
            "residentModelPerArm": true,
            "executionOrder": [
              "native-state",
              "full-text"
            ],
            "operatingSystemCacheControlled": false
          },
          "result": {
            "deadlineMs": 45000,
            "nativeExactDecisions": "8/8",
            "fullTextExactDecisions": "6/8",
            "nativeArtifactPassed": true,
            "fullTextArtifactPassed": false,
            "nativeArtifactPassedAtMs": 30422.008834,
            "nativeTotalWallMs": 30422.073542,
            "fullTextObservedWallMs": 45000,
            "nativeStateBytes": 315696149,
            "sharedPrefixBytes": 9223,
            "sharedPrefixTokens": 1923,
            "retainedStateBytesAfterStudy": 0,
            "formalHostRuns": 1,
            "reportSha256": "ce956cfaf6ea2734b9b2319c05eb8c4a4b2c2f83b9da331c3e3fc1708883acc1"
          },
          "supportedClaim": "In one frozen local fixture, the resident native-state path completed the required allowlisted executable artifact before the matched deadline while the resident full-text control did not.",
          "uncontrolled": [
            "Operating-system cache state",
            "Thermal state",
            "Energy",
            "Repeated-run variance",
            "Cross-host behavior"
          ],
          "notSupported": [
            "General coding capability",
            "Arbitrary code generation",
            "Learned private language",
            "General quality advantage",
            "Token, storage, network, cost, energy, or overall-efficiency advantage",
            "Production behavior or authority"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "programNonClaims": [
        "No learned Waggle or universal neuralese",
        "No independent semantic decoding of opaque state",
        "No general coding or model-quality conclusion",
        "No token, dollar, storage, network, energy, or overall-efficiency win",
        "No production traffic, customer result, revenue, deployment, or authority"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "heatwake",
      "name": "HEATWAKE",
      "verdict": "The tracked local operator gained a deterministic synthetic market-state representation, a read-only physical-data gate, and product-owned lifecycle. The empirical research verdict did not change: zero admitted third-party bytes, final test unopened, and ABSTAIN.",
      "experiments": [
        {
          "id": "synthetic-market-state-field",
          "result": {
            "syntheticSourceStates": 3600,
            "rasterColumns": 720,
            "priceLevels": 96,
            "fieldChannels": 12,
            "contourSegments": 9427,
            "displayedStateFlowVectors": 96,
            "executionLimitedMoveObservations": 40,
            "descriptiveOnly": true,
            "probabilityField": "WITHHELD"
          },
          "supportedClaim": "The tested synthetic source compiles deterministically into a bounded inspectable representation.",
          "notSupported": [
            "Participant identity or intent",
            "Spoofing or manipulation inference",
            "Hidden-liquidity inference",
            "Empirical validity",
            "Direction, probability, edge, or profitability"
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "physical-data-gate",
          "result": {
            "state": "WAITING_FOR_ORDERED_DRIVE",
            "eligibleExternalDisksObserved": 0,
            "sourceBytes": 0,
            "providerAttempts": 0,
            "empiricalTrainingRuns": 0,
            "finalTestOpens": 0,
            "orders": 0,
            "spendUsd": 0,
            "automaticMutation": false
          },
          "supportedClaim": "The local read-only projection reports the current physical prerequisite state and fails closed.",
          "visualVerification": "BLOCKED_ON_LOOPBACK_BROWSER_POLICY"
        },
        {
          "id": "operator-lifecycle-and-audit",
          "result": {
            "operatorUiTestFiles": 28,
            "operatorUiTests": 95,
            "operatorServiceTests": 64,
            "operatorLifecycleTests": 10,
            "safeLocalAuditVersion": 57,
            "safeLocalAuditRuntimeSources": 288,
            "safeLocalAuditHighFindings": 0,
            "safeLocalAuditRecordHash": "f69a6d12d0844a02b9e0d135a4b509013b3b8ee6cdc7944b7700638b484c755e",
            "nonPublicEvidenceInputs": 2,
            "gitOnlyReproducible": false
          },
          "supportedClaim": "The exact tracked local snapshot passed its focused product gates and regenerated the sealed audit when the required private evidence inputs were present.",
          "notSupported": [
            "Independent reproduction",
            "Public or production deployment",
            "Live feed or provider access",
            "Execution authority"
          ]
        },
        {
          "id": "empirical-state",
          "result": {
            "admittedThirdPartyBytes": 0,
            "empiricalSamples": 0,
            "empiricalTrainingRuns": 0,
            "empiricalEvaluationRuns": 0,
            "empiricalInferenceRuns": 0,
            "empiricalFinalTestOpens": 0,
            "commercialPublicRightsCleared": false,
            "policyAction": "ABSTAIN"
          },
          "supportedClaim": "No empirical result exists."
        }
      ],
      "programNonClaims": [
        "No admitted live or historical market corpus",
        "No empirical fit or generalization",
        "No validated forecast, market edge, or profitability",
        "No order, trade, capital deployment, provider acquisition, or production readiness",
        "No cleared commercial or public redistribution rights for the selected historical source"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "verification": {
    "performedAt": "2026-07-16T09:11:04-04:00",
    "environment": "local macOS research workstation",
    "runs": [
      {
        "program": "Waggle + Kea",
        "command": "npm run test:waggle-kea-grok-provider-decision-gate",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "Committed report and replay integrity verified; replay provider calls 0; tamper checks failed closed"
      },
      {
        "program": "Waggle + Kea",
        "command": "npm run test:waggle-kea-grok-provider-fanout-gate",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "Committed negative report and pricing curve verified; replay provider calls 0; tamper checks failed closed"
      },
      {
        "program": "Waggle + Kea",
        "command": "npm run test:waggle-kea-qwen3-native-deadline-build",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "6/8 versus 4/8 negative artifact result verified with 0 local model processes and 0 external calls"
      },
      {
        "program": "Waggle + Kea",
        "command": "npm run test:waggle-kea-qwen3-resident-deadline-build",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "8/8 passing artifact versus 6/8 incomplete artifact verified with 0 local model processes and 0 external calls"
      },
      {
        "program": "Waggle + Kea",
        "command": "npm run typecheck && npm run build",
        "result": "PASS"
      },
      {
        "program": "HEATWAKE",
        "command": "npm run verify",
        "workingDirectory": "apps/operator",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "lint, strict TypeScript, 95 tests across 28 files, and production build"
      },
      {
        "program": "HEATWAKE",
        "command": "./apps/operator-service/.venv/bin/python -m pytest -q apps/operator-service/tests",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "64 tests"
      },
      {
        "program": "HEATWAKE",
        "command": "./apps/operator-service/.venv/bin/python -m pytest -q tests/test_operator_lifecycle.py",
        "result": "PASS",
        "observed": "10 tests"
      },
      {
        "program": "HEATWAKE",
        "command": "PYTHONPATH=src ./apps/operator-service/.venv/bin/python scripts/audit_safe_local_surfaces.py --check",
        "result": "PASS_WITH_TWO_NON_PUBLIC_INPUTS",
        "observed": "audit v57; 288 runtime sources; 0 high findings; Git-only reproduction is not claimed"
      }
    ],
    "verificationEffects": {
      "providerCalls": 0,
      "localModelProcesses": 0,
      "paidRequests": 0,
      "emailSends": 0,
      "sourceAcquisitionRequests": 0,
      "newEmpiricalBytesAdmitted": 0,
      "heatwakeFinalTestOpens": 0,
      "orders": 0,
      "trades": 0,
      "capitalUsd": 0,
      "authorityGrants": 0,
      "researchHarnessDeployments": 0
    }
  },
  "releaseNonClaims": [
    "Not peer reviewed or independently validated",
    "No universal agent language or learned private protocol",
    "No native-state compression or overall-efficiency claim",
    "No general coding or model-quality claim",
    "No HEATWAKE empirical market result",
    "No forecast, market edge, profitability, trading, or production claim",
    "No customer adoption, revenue, or commercial validation claim"
  ]
}